Canada Investment Report, 2010-14
Authors: Tamar Wilner
Published: July, 2010
Pages: 172 | Tables: 63 | Figures: 59

With the introduction of the federal ecoENERGY program in 2007 the wind industry has experienced a period of consolidation, and as such the Canada report is a timely publication.

The report examines this significant high-growth market, including forecasts for development over the next five years at the national and local level. The report details significant planned wind farm developments, comprising of extensive data tables and figures that anticipate where future growth will occur. Future planning issues, policy targets and investment opportunities are also analysed nationally and at the provincial and territorial level.

The year 2009 proved to be a good one for the Canadian wind power industry.Yearly installations shot to a new high of 949.6 MW, 170 MW above the record set in 2006, and 81% above installations in 2008. The country’s total installed wind capacity stood at 3432 MW at the end of Q1 2010 and is currently just shy of 3472 MW (July 2010).

But the near-depletion, uncertainty and eventual death of ecoEnergy for Renewable Power—the federal government’s flagship grant program—hobbled an industry already shaky from a global credit crisis. The loss of this funding stream will likely hit hardest in Alberta and the Maritimes (comprising New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island), while leaving Ontario unscathed.These difficulties have curtailed industry growth for 2010. In 2010 we predict annual installations will rise only slightly to 1059 MW.

But the impact of financing shortfalls may not be fully seen until 2012, when our projections show a slump in annual installations.We have projected that most of the onshore projects contracted under Ontario’s feed-in tariff will come online in 2013, as this is the deadline stipulated in the contracts. But we cannot rule out the possibility that some of these projects may be able to come online sooner. That, coupled with almost inevitable delays to some wind projects in a number of provinces, may well smooth out the spike in wind installations projected in 2013.

Using our installation forecasts, Windpower Intelligence has projected the size of the Canadian wind energy market for the next four years.

Our national projections were built up from an analysis of planned projects and development constraints in each of the provinces.

We have used and combined two methods to create forecasts for wind development in the next five years and beyond. The first involved the collection and verification of data on every planned wind farm in Canada. The second involved an analysis of provincial targets and procurement processes.

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