Offshore Wind Cables Technology Forecast to 2025
Authors: John McKenna
Published: November, 2015
Pages: 62 | Tables: 3 | Figures: 19
Based on extensive primary research this study Offshore Wind Cables: Technology Forecast to 2025 is the essential planning and strategy guide to developments within the fast growing offshore wind cables market.
This major new study identifies and profiles the technologies expected to affect the sector to 2025. The report includes exclusive 10-year market forecasts and illustrates the trends and drivers, shaping the development of offshore wind cables markets.
Find out about:
- A thorough assessment of technology developments across the offshore cables supply chain to 2025
- Key technology trends shaping industry’s future to 2025
– Quantitative and qualitative forecasts to 2025
– Primary and secondary research highlighting major players in the industry, market drivers and geographic trends
Who should buy this report?
- Wind turbine manufacturers
- Components and equipment providers
- Wind maintenance and service companies
- Utilities and wind developers seeking opportunities
- Financial institutions assessing risk and opportunities
- Consultancies specialising in wind industry
What’s included in the price?
- A hard copy of the report
- CD with searchable PDF
- Global intranet licence, allowing data to be distributed throughout your organisation
- Stay ahead of the competition by getting the latest industry figures and analysis
- Pinpoint growth and identify factors driving change
- Plan for the future with confidence
With this Offshore Wind Cables Technology Forecast to 2025 report, one message emerges clearly: opportunities for equipment and service suppliers to the offshore wind power sector for the next decade remain potentially huge. Cable supply and installation is no exception, and yet the “significant supply chain gap” the UK’s Crown Estate warned of in 2012 shows no signs of shrinking.
Analysis of the latest data for planned offshore wind projects in the WPO Intelligence database reveals a pipeline of more than 151GW will require cables between now and 2025, assuming they all proceed. Not all of the 151GW pipeline has all the necessary planning consents and permits in place, while some projects may be abandoned for various reasons. Nonetheless, even when only looking at those projects with permits, global demand for offshore electricity cables over the next 10 years is projected to be 77.6GW. That is more than six times the existing global installed offshore wind capacity of 11.8GW.
Project capacity is not the only indicator used in this report. The length of cable required going forward is critical for any business plan. With more and more projects planned further out to sea, unprecedented lengths of cabling will be required to meet demand. In this report we provide forecasts for just how much may be required (for export cables this is based on two-cable and three-cable scenarios).
The dichotomy between potential opportunity and supply seems to be due to a lack of confidence in the market. Wider general market uncertainty, created by changes to policy support in key countries, still presents a significant risk, discouraging cable suppliers from investing in additional manufacturing capacity.
The sector also still needs to find potential replacements to safeguard against potential copper shortages. Overall, the opportunities are vast, but the investment required to meet demand is similarly huge. For that to happen, a greater sense of policy certainty and stability is a must.
The authors of this report used the WPO Intelligence database of offshore wind farms to extract data that underpin the majority of graphics and tables contained herein. We used a snapshot of the data that was taken on 19 October 2015. Any cable supply contracts information that we became aware of after that date is not reflected in this report.
Data were only drawn from ‘active’ projects – those that were listed in the database as being either ‘in progress’ or ‘online’ (398 in total). We excluded projects that had either been inactive for a long time or were recorded as having been cancelled by the developer.
It should be noted that some of the projects we have included are likely to be cancelled or put on hold during the forecast period. Conversely, a number of projects that are as yet unknown to us are likely to be announced and brought online by 2028 (the reference year for cable demand in 2025), for example in countries such as India where policy announcements in support of offshore wind are starting to be made.
Of the 398 active projects, WPO Intelligence database holds cable information for 218.
Cable demand forecasts were based on the assumption that the demand would materialise three years before the year when the relevant offshore wind farm was estimated to come online. This time lag is based on the experience so far, according to our records.
For the longer term we assumed additional installed capacity of 6.8GW per year, in accordance with prevalent industry views. Forecasts for individual countries are based on the information we hold in the WPO Intelligence database, except for China where, for capacity beyond 2018, we used widely accepted projections that China will be installing about 50% of global capacity.
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