The UK could emerge as the largest market for renewables, and installed wind capacity in Europe over the next five years. This report forecasts and qualifies developments in the wind industry by region and county right down to individual development opportunities and planned new wind farm installations onshore and offshore. The report contains over 70 primary data tables and figures which show exactly where future growth in the UK is likely to occur.
Published: February, 2011
Pages: 238 | Tables: 125 | Figures: 21
The final year of Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s leadership and the first months of the UK’s new coalition government have seen many changes proposed for renewables policy in the UK. Some have been enacted and welcomed by the industry; other proposed changes have caused lingering uncertainty that developers say is holding back investment. Ireland’s environment for wind investment, while it has its challenges, seems to offer more certainty. Both countries have historically offered strong attractions for wind investment, and continue to do so. The UK’s wind capacity topped 5 GW in 2010, in the year that saw the Republic of Ireland’s wind capacity rise to almost 1.4 GW. The project pipeline contains over 61 GW in the UK and 5.8 GW in the Republic of Ireland. Yearly offshore installations in the two countries have soared, from 284 MW in 2009 to 652 MW by end of Q3 2010.
Research and interviews for this report was carried out between August and December 2010. Information on existing and planned wind farms was collected in Q3, with the exception of the Thanet offshore wind farm, which came online later and was accordingly moved from the planned list to the existing list.
The report forecasts development up to 2019, with an additional category for ‘2020+’ projects. This report has been written to aid investment decisions by those in or looking to enter the UK and Republic of Ireland wind power industries.
The report used three types of research:
• Wind farm data — Researchers collected information on existing and planned wind farms, including names, sizes, locations, types of turbines used, development stage (for planned wind farms only) and other information. The information was primarily collected from developers, either by phone, email or from the developers’ websites. Where this could not be obtained, researchers used information reported in the media.
• Phone interviews — The report author carried out ten interviews with key wind industry figures, including developers, manufacturers and industry association representatives. The names and affiliations of interviewees are included in the acknowledgements. The interviews were used to evaluate the importance of various policy issues and to identify areas of concern to investors.
• Desk research — The report author used online and hard-copy documents to assemble details on policies, planning, the operating environment, networks and the supply chain.
This report provides four different forecasts:
• Basic forecast — This model draws directly on figures provided by the UK and Irish governments to the European Commission, showing the expected contribution of onshore and offshore wind to meeting the countries’ renewables obligations.
• Optimistic forecast — Our researchers collected this model data on planned wind farms. Where developers were able to provide an estimated online date for the wind farm, we have used their estimate. In other cases we have followed a decision tree.
• Realistic forecast — This method takes the optimistic forecast and applies realisation factors that were developed with the WPI forecasting methodology, which takes into account historical actualisation rates and future policy direction.
• Historic forecast — This forecast shows what UK and Ireland wind growth would look like if historic patterns were to continue. Since growth rates have fluctuated significantly from one year to the next, we have chosen to use only the 70% growth rate seen between 2008 and 2009.